The Fallacy of Conspiracy Theories

"We never landed on the moon!”

"I saw an alien!" 

"9/11 was planned by the US government!"

"Michael Jackson is still alive!"

            

We hear these sentences ten times a day. Conspiracy theories -- some of the most alienating (pun intended) things we will ever read. They are the gateway into a world that is so much more fantastic than the one we live in now. I mean, who wouldn't want to know the truth about all of these things -- to know whether aliens really exist or not, to know the truth behind 9/11, to know whether the King of Pop is indeed alive? I would! And I know you would.

But, conspiracy theories ultimately boil down to one thing: the Fallacy of Positive Instances.

See, in psychology, the Fallacy of Positive Instances is when we agree with information that fits our expectations, while discarding anything that could counteract these expectations. You see it all the time when you read a horoscope. For example, check this horoscope (from the aptly named Horoscope.com) out: 

“Social events, especially those unrelated to business, could bring exciting new contacts. Relationships with partners should be mutually beneficial, particularly when the people you’re dealing with are friends. If you’ve been considering entering a new business partnership, this is the day to start discussing it seriously. Romantic partnerships begun or moved forward now should also go very well.”

So you're (probably) thinking to yourself, "Wow! I'm going to social events unrelated to business where I'll probably make some friends! I currently share mutually beneficial relationships with my friends! I'm not entering a new business partnership, and I'm not really focusing on romantic things right now, but aside from that, everything's right on the mark!"

That's cool! I mean, there's only .083% chance that this horoscope is for your sign (it was a Scorpio one) but if you found a bunch of similarities anyway, then maybe it was a happy accident! That, or you fell for the Fallacy of Positive Instances. The horoscope is worded in such a way (read: vaguely) that anybody who reads it can find something that is somewhat applicable to their lives.

Apply this reasoning to conspiracy theories, and you have the same story.  For example, look at the whole 9/11 conspiracy. Popular Mechanics highlights one of the more blatant claims: the plane that hit the World Trade Center was not a commercial airline, and the hit was orchestrated to further an American war agenda. Never mind the massive amounts of forensic evidence found in the wreckage that proves the plane’s takeover -- it was all George Bush’s fault! Basically, if you want to believe something, you’re going to believe it, no matter how far-fetched it may be. Depending on your own personal beliefs, you could be more prone to believing certain conspiracy theories. People that really hate the government are obviously going to jump on the whole “the government orchestrated 9/11” ship. That is the whole point of the Fallacy of Positive Instances: you take the points that make sense to you, discard the ones that don’t, and you have a working conspiracy theory. You have to remember, however, that there are discrepancies in these theories, which are the points which conspiracy theorists stubbornly ignore, and therein lies the lack of credibility in their arguments. You have to see all aspects of the story, whether you agree with them or not, to discover the truth. Ignoring the counterarguments will get you nowhere.

So, no, 9/11 was not an inside job. America did land on the moon. MJ isn’t going to suddenly reappear. Like I said, it's the Fallacy of Positive Instances.

Check out some of the places I got my information from!

Popular Mechanics debunking 9/11 conspiracy theories: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/1230517

Horoscopes: http://www.horoscope.com/ (If you really want to see the Fallacy of Positive Instances, choose a random horoscope and see how well your friend responds to it, especially if it’s not from their sign!)     

Oh, and one more thing. Never, I repeat, never doubt that Buzz Aldrin went to the moon. And please don’t call him a liar. He will tell you to get away from him punch you in the face. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUI36tPKDg4.